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In December , one of the most eminent economists of the time, Alvin E. Hansen, delivered the Presidential Address, titled “Economic. Summers’ theory of “secular stagnation” (a term first used by the economist Alvin Hansen back in ) holds that, in the United States, the. Recently, Hansen’s secular stagnation hypothesis has gained renewed stagnation in the US in much the same way as suggested by Alvin Hansen in

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Clark Henry C. Depressed expectations over the “prospective rate of profit on new investment” might become a self-fulfilling prophecy see Farmer.

Alvin Hansen – Wikipedia

If you haven’t read the speech, I recommend that you do–it’s an interesting and easy read. The theory Hansen espouses seems to relate the level of employment say, as measured by the employment-to-population ratio or the unemployment rate to the rate of economic growth. Willcox Thomas N.

Hansen’s speech was published in the American Economic Review in March Davenport Jacob H. Dewey Edmund J. His Economic Stabilization in an Unbalanced Worldwritten with the help of a Guggenheim grant that funded travel in Europe duringestablished Hansen in the broader circle of public affairs.

Alvin Hansen

Hansen retired from Harvard in Yet few there are who believe that in a period of investment stagnation an abundance of loanable funds at low rates of interest is alone adequate to produce a stagnatioh flow of real investment.


Gardner Herbert J. It requires a large outlay on new investment, and this awaits the development of great new industries and new techniques. Wtagnation also advocated fiscal and other stimuli to ward off the stagnation that he thought was endemic to mature, industrialized economies.

And while medical technology played a big role in lowering mortality rates in the 19th and early 20th century, “no important further gains in this direction can possibly offset the prevailing low birth rate. Barnett William Z. In he received an invitation to occupy the new Lucius N. But more recently, Hansen writes, “the role of economic progress in the maintenance of full employment of the productive resources has come under consideration.

However, the sustained economic growth, beginning inundercut Hansen’s predictions and his stagnation model was forgotten. Economic Growth, that the s experienced a great deal of technological growth. For example, Hansen discusses a slowdown in population growth, which was certainly a fair reading of the trends at that time, but completely missed that US fertility rates were about to take off less than a decade later at the start of what we call the “baby boom.

How about measuring full employment as “every abled body that wants a job, has a job”? Hansen’s secular stagnation hypothesis was largely forgotten over time.


CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Secular Stagnation: Back to Alvin Hansen

Hansen seems concerned about the prospect for future growth. It’s uansen not something that is as obvious as people like to portray. How should this data be organized?

Hansen’s book ofFull Recovery or Stagnation. I’m unashamedly socialist not in the Russia or North Korea sense, they are not examples of socialist economies, and only lazy capitalists evoke that argument in my opinionso my beliefs and aspirations naturally lean towards more equitable distributions, rather than more efficient which is typically less equitable.

University of Wisconsin—Madison Alvij College. I think of Keynes as an explanation for depressed levels, unrelated to growth phenomena. The s and s were a time when stagmation technologies were bringing new products to market. Hansen married Mabel Lewis: So maybe the pace of technological advance will accelerate. Fuchs Anne O.

Thanks for your comment! Adams Arthur T. It would be difficult to say what Hansen described as secular as being secular.

This page was last edited on 29 Decemberat